Divorce Rates are Falling as Couples Marry Later

Risk Factors – Marriage Age, Education Level, Warm Weather, Baseball

Jul 2, 2009 Christina Gregoire

Divorce rates are falling in many areas. Is it because couples marry later? Risk factors for divorce are: Marriage age, education level, weather, and baseball? Yes.

Divorce rates are falling in the US, though it’s impossible to get exact data, because not all states keep statistics. There are hundreds of theories about risk factors for divorce. Some appear obvious: Marriage age, education level, and household income. Other theories leave readers' heads spinning: Weather and Major League Baseball?

Whatever the reason, the good news is: People in the US are less likely to get a divorce than they were ten years ago!

Marry Later

In the article, "Divorce Rates Fall as Couples Marry Later" [mcall.com, 2009], Riley Yates tells the story of a Pennsylvania couple, Joshua Cole and Jessica Mack, who recently married. Yates suggests several factors which make it likely that Joshua and Jessica will stay together for life, including:

Both have master’s degrees
They dated for 4 years before marriage
Both are in their late 20’s

Jessica Mack, the bride, says that they wanted to finish their degrees, have a stable career, and be able to purchase a home.

Pennsylvania Divorce Statistics

Divorce rates have been falling over the past two decades. Sociologists and marriage counselors believe that this is because people are more cautious about jumping into marriage, more likely to wait to get married, and more eager to avoid bringing up their own children in divorced households, if they were children of divorce.

Pennsylvania’s numbers show that in 2007, there were 40,627 divorce filings, which is down over 10 percent from 1995. And, in one county, the divorce rate has dropped by a startling and fantastic 25 percent. Researchers say that the divorce rate started falling in the late 80s, but it is difficult to point to any one reason.

Statistics for Divorce

The United States shows a similar trend. The U.S. per capita divorce rates were:

1995, 0.43%
1997, 0.43%,
1998, 0.42%,
1999, 0.41%,
2000, 0.41%,
2001, 0.40%,
2002, 0.38% (Note: These numbers don’t go to 2007, but show same trend.)

Marriage Age

Women who get married before the age of 25 make up about 64 percent of all divorces in the U.S. On the other hand, women who get married in their late twenties make up only 16 percent of the divorces. This means that any woman who gets married before she turns 25 is about four times more likely to get a divorce. (Women in their 30s have even better odds of staying married.)

Men have similar numbers, though they are somewhat more likely to get divorced if they marry before 30. [divorcerate.org]

Please remember that these are just statistics. Every person, every couple, every marriage is different. A girl shouldn’t call off her wedding just because of her age or her finance's age, however, if everyone in a her family says she’s too young to get married, they just might be right.

Education Level and Economic Factors

Couples with higher education and higher income are less likely to have marriage problems. (People everywhere must be wondering what genius came up with the research grant to study this.) But, let’s look at some of the stats related to divorce within the first 10 years of marriage:

Any amount of college decreases the chance of divorce by 13 percent
An income over $50,000 decreases the chance of divorce by 30 percent
Couples with an income under $25,000 have a 50 percent chance of ending up getting divorced. [divorce360.com]

Another possible predictor of successful marriage is whether or not a person has been divorced before. Statistics from the Forest Institute of Professional Psychology, 2003, give this picture:

Divorce rate in America for first marriage: 50%
Divorce rate in America for second marriage: 67%
Divorce rate in America for third marriage: 74%

But rather than feeling sad about second-and-third-marriage divorce statistics, people should be happy that Americans, that eternally optimistic group, are willing to keep trying until they get it right.

Warm Weather, a Risk Factor?

Until this point everything made sense. Then, came the statistics about warm weather states and cities with major league baseball teams.

More than 60 percent of the US lives in the colder, northern half of the country. However, the colder, northern half of the country has less than half of the divorces. This sounds a bit odd. But, maybe there is more hanky panky when the neighbor's wife is mowing the front yard while wearing a bikini.

Baseball City: Good for Marriage

According to Denver University psychologist, Howard Markman, cities with Major League Baseball teams have a lower divorce rate than cities without a team. Yes. Cities with baseball achieved a lower divorce rate after they got their game on. This happened when MLB teams were awarded to Denver, Phoenix, Miami and Tampa Bay. The average decrease in the divorce rate was 28 percent. What this means, exactly, for the civilized world, no woman will ever know.

Divorce rates do, indeed, seem to be falling. When couples marry later, they have a better chance of making a good marriage. Some of the risk factors for divorce are: Marriage age (the older the better), education level, the weather in one's home state, and whether or not one's city has a Major League Baseball team. Of course, the real predictor of success in marriage is probably each partner's commitment to each other.

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Resources:

Wojdacz, Mariah. "What's the real status of divorce in America?" legalzoom.com. 2009.

"Cities with MLB Baseball Teams Have a Lower Divorce Rate!" businessweek.com. April 13, 2009.

The copyright of the article Divorce Rates are Falling as Couples Marry Later in Divorce is owned by Christina Gregoire. Permission to republish Divorce Rates are Falling as Couples Marry Later in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.